CarPoModel

Project financing:

Total budget: 197 985 euro

PSH budget: 166 646 euro

Financier: Ministère de l’agriculture et de la sécurité alimentaire

Digest:

The codling moth (Cydia pomonella) is a major pest of apple, pear, and walnut orchards worldwide. Its larvae cause severe economic losses, making control essential. Management strategies in France include exclusion nets, mating disruption, chemical insecticides, and bioinsecticides such as the Cydia pomonella GranuloVirus (CpGV). The effectiveness of these methods depends on accurately predicting the timing of pest generations using phenological models. However, growers and advisors increasingly report discrepancies between model predictions and field observations, due to climate change, emerging resistances, and outdated biological datasets.

This project aims to update and complete key biological data (development rates, longevity, diapause conditions, effects of variable temperatures) from diverse natural populations, in order to refine existing models. In addition, it will test and adapt the American fixed-biofix model, which predicts the codling moth’s first flight date based on climatic and geographic data, to French populations—offering a more reliable alternative to pheromone traps, whose efficiency has declined with widespread mating disruption.

The ultimate goal is to provide growers and advisors with open-access, robust, and user-friendly models to better schedule treatments and anticipate potential shifts in codling moth phenology under climate change.

PSH role:

PSH is the main stakeholder in this project and has been deeply involved in all its achievements.

Project partners:

Université d’Avignon